Bitcoin has the most concrete quantum spec on this list, BIP-360, a working testnet with CRYSTALS-Dilithium, and Satoshi's one million BTC sitting in P2PK outputs with the public keys visible since 2009. Rescue or burn is the actual argument. Everything else is bikeshedding.
Summary
Bitcoin has the most concrete architectural quantum proposal (BIP-360 + BTQ Bitcoin Quantum testnet with CRYSTALS-Dilithium) but lowest governance velocity in batch. X=infinite (historical UTXO signatures vulnerable to Shor-forged spends of exposed-pubkey UTXOs like Satoshi's 1M BTC). Lopp's burn-vs-rescue framing active. Migration Stage 1: BIP-360 spec exists, external testnet functional, no Core adoption.
What the gates say
- Hybrid: PASS. Hybrid-PQ design present.
- Evidence: PASS. Sources reconstructable by third party.
- Primitive naming: PASS. Named primitives at every scored sub-level.
Burn-vs-rescue policy on file
burn (Lopp BIP-361 position preferred by a faction; not formally adopted). Satoshi coins are de facto burned via non-movement.
Seven dimensions
Each dimension scores 0-100 internally; the weighted roll-up produces the QRI on the left. Open a row to read the sub-score detail.
1 Cryptographic Exposure 45 / 100
Very complete primitive inventory. BIP-360 names Dilithium explicitly.
ECDSA secp256k1 (legacy/SegWit tx sigs) · Schnorr secp256k1 (Taproot) · SHA-256d (block headers, Merkle) · RIPEMD-160 (P2PKH/P2WPKH address hash) · CRYSTALS-Dilithium (BIP-360 P2MR testnet only)BIP-360 Dilithium (lattice) proposed; not on mainnet. Currently no PQC families deployed.
2 HNDL Exposure 45 / 100
P2TR key-path (Taproot) exposes pubkeys in witness output. P2PKH hides pubkey until first spend. Reused addresses exposed. Mix of ~25-40% exposed.
Satoshi's ~1M BTC in P2PK outputs have pubkeys exposed on-chain since 2009-2010. Lost coins (1-2M BTC, 6-10% supply) retain exposure. ETF holdings ~7% of supply.
X=infinite for Bitcoin — historical signatures retain validity indefinitely. Key difference from account-based chains.
P2P node communication uses standard TLS, BIP-324 (v2 transport) adds ChaCha20-Poly1305. BIP-324 is PQ-asymmetric-safe for authentication but key exchange still ECDH.
3 Metadata & Privacy Exposure 30 / 100
UTXO pseudonymous. CoinJoin / Wasabi / Samourai provide some mixing.
Self-hosted nodes common; miners via pools (Foundry 31.6%, AntPool 16.7%, ViaBTC 13.7%).
WBTC via BitGo custody; tBTC decentralized; Lightning Network off-chain.
ECDSA broken: historical unspent P2PK outputs expose pubkeys; P2PKH signatures revealed on spend also Shor-broken. Lopp's position: burn exposed coins.
4 Migration Architecture 38 / 100
Taproot's MAST allows scripted spending conditions. BIP-360 proposes new output type (P2MR SegWit v2).
No AA. Fixed UTXO script model. Users must manually migrate UTXOs to new address type.
Soft forks only. SegWit 2017, Taproot 2021. Conservative but successful. Historical avg time proposal-to-activation ~4 years.
BIP-360 is hybrid by design — new output type alongside existing P2PKH/P2WPKH/P2TR. Old UTXOs remain classical; new UTXOs use Dilithium. Testnet only.
5 Deployment Execution 15 / 100
no mainnet PQC traffic
BTQ Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 has Dilithium opcodes — external implementation, not Bitcoin Core. 50+ miners, 100K+ blocks on testnet.
PoW — no validator set. Miners use SHA-256 unchanged.
BIP-360 draft spec + BTQ testnet v0.3.0 deployment are named milestones. No dated Core activation.
BTQ shipped testnet code; Bitcoin Core has not adopted. Modest overhang.
6 Supply Chain Vendor Readiness 15 / 100
7 Governance & Coordination 55 / 100
Mining: Foundry 31.6%, AntPool 16.7%, ViaBTC 13.7%. NC=3. Nodes: ~20K+ reachable.
Taproot 2021, SegWit 2017. Slow but completed. Conservative process.
No formal foundation but rough-consensus model via Bitcoin Core maintainers (Wladimir van der Laan, etc.).
Block size wars 2015-2017 demonstrated adversarial-pressure coordination capability, culminating in UASF and SegWit activation. Model for quantum migration.
The X + Y vs Z inequality
X (data shelf life): 100+ (historical UTXO signatures unspendable but pubkey-exposed permanently; Satoshi 1M BTC P2PK is the headline case)
Y (migration time): 7-12 (Lopp estimates 5-10 years from Core acceptance; Core acceptance not secured)
Z10 (10% CRQC year): 2036 · Z50 (50%): 2041
Verdict: X+Y > Z (danger).
Four-scenario grid
| Scenario | Value preserved | Privacy preserved |
|---|---|---|
| quantum never | 100% | 100% |
| arrives suddenly pre migration | 25% | 20% |
| arrives slowly post migration | 90% | 80% |
| arrives slowly mid migration | 55% | 45% |
Peers in the L1 profile
Order-book view of the 9 chains closest to Bitcoin by QRI.
Public artifacts used for this scorecard
Each entry below is a sub-score citation. Clicking the link takes you to the public source. A third party should be able to reconstruct every number on this page from these URLs in 48 hours.
Very complete primitive inventory. BIP-360 names Dilithium explicitly.
Supply chain snapshot
A chain's supply chain cannot migrate faster than its slowest dependency. Zero PQC roadmaps in any of the four categories is a structural blocker, not a lagging indicator.
Analyst notes on the scoring
Highest artifact density of any chain in batch (5 in Dim 1, 4 in Dim 7). Sutor cap binds (only 2 dated milestones). Taproot's 4-year activation cycle suggests quantum migration would exceed Y=10 estimate. Band 3 Planning justified by concrete spec despite slow pace.
Scorecard metadata
- Profile: L1
- Scored: 2026-04-18 by
layerqu-v2-scoring-agent-1 - v1 reference:
chainscreen-v1-archive - QRI raw: 28 · after caps: 28
- Confidence interval: ±5
- PQC washing ratio: 1.2x
- Burn-vs-rescue: burn (Lopp BIP-361 position preferred by a faction; not formally adopted). Satoshi coins are de facto burned via non-movement.
Caps triggered
- mosca_cap_60 (5a=0)
- sutor_stage_cap_2 (5d count=2, under 3)
- casado_stage_cap_3