{ "chain_slug": "xrp-ledger", "name": "XRP Ledger (XRPL)", "scorecard_profile": "L1", "evaluated_at": "2026-04-17", "evaluator": "layerqu-v2-scoring-agent-5", "v1_reference": "chainscreen-v1-archive", "dimensions": { "1_cryptographic_exposure": { "weight": 0.15, "score": 55, "sub_scores": { "1a_primitive_inventory": { "score": 14, "primitives_named": [ "ECDSA secp256k1 (default)", "Ed25519 (alternative)", "ML-DSA / CRYSTALS-Dilithium (AlphaNet)", "SHA-512/half (hashing)" ], "evidence": [ "v1:chainscreen-v1-archive/data/chains/xrp-ledger.json" ], "note": "AlphaNet (Dec 2025) deployed full CRYSTALS-Dilithium (ML-DSA) signatures — not hybrid, full PQ. IEEE paper published." }, "1b_shor_grover_pq_tag": { "score": 14, "tags": { "ECDSA secp256k1": "Shor-break", "Ed25519": "Shor-break", "ML-DSA": "PQ-safe (lattice)" }, "evidence": [] }, "1c_algorithm_family_diversity": { "score": 10, "families_represented": 1, "families": [ "lattice (ML-DSA)" ], "note": "One PQ family deployed on testnet (AlphaNet); mainnet remains classical." }, "1d_nist_security_category": { "score": 9, "mappings": { "ML-DSA-65": "NIST category 3 (PQ)", "ECDSA secp256k1": "128-bit classical" }, "evidence": [] }, "1e_implementation_quality": { "score": 8, "formal_verification": "rippled well-audited; ML-DSA integration via reference library", "constant_time": "standard", "libraries": [ "rippled (C++)" ], "evidence": [] } }, "total_artifacts": 3 }, "2_hndl_exposure": { "weight": 0.1, "score": 25, "sub_scores": { "2a_active_key_exposure": { "score": 6, "note": "~12 years mainnet; large active keys with static ECDSA. Ripple-controlled escrow significant." }, "2b_cold_key_exposure": { "score": 6, "note": "Long-dormant XRP holders from 2013+ era." }, "2c_signature_longterm_validity": { "score": 7, "note": "Historical ECDSA sigs Shor-forgeable; AlphaNet path points toward rotation." }, "2d_encryption_confidentiality": { "score": 6, "note": "TLS; no PQ KEM in peer protocol yet." } }, "total_artifacts": 1 }, "3_metadata_privacy_exposure": { "weight": 0.13, "score": 30, "sub_scores": { "3a_tx_graph_visibility": { "score": 7, "note": "Transparent ledger; RippleNet payment use case adds institutional context." }, "3b_rpc_mempool_concentration": { "score": 8, "note": "Ripple + Validator UNL concentration." }, "3c_cross_chain_bridge_correlation": { "score": 8, "note": "XRPL-EVM sidechain + Axelar bridges." }, "3d_retroactive_deanon_risk": { "score": 7, "note": "No shielded pools; transparent baseline." } }, "total_artifacts": 1 }, "4_migration_architecture": { "weight": 0.1, "score": 68, "sub_scores": { "4a_crypto_agility": { "score": 20, "note": "Multi-algorithm signature support (secp256k1, Ed25519, ML-DSA via AlphaNet). Amendment system enables protocol-level scheme switch via validator vote." }, "4b_account_abstraction_key_rotation": { "score": 13, "note": "RegularKey feature allows per-account signer rotation without losing account control; useful for migration." }, "4c_hard_fork_track_record": { "score": 18, "note": "Amendment system: dozens of amendments shipped via 80%/2wk supermajority vote. Mature coordination primitive." }, "4d_hybrid_deployment_readiness": { "score": 17, "note": "AlphaNet (Dec 2025) shipped PQ-only (not hybrid); hybrid path possible. Published IEEE paper elevates credibility." } }, "total_artifacts": 3 }, "5_deployment_execution": { "weight": 0.22, "score": 42, "sub_scores": { "5a_mainnet_pqc_pct": { "score": 5, "mainnet_pqc_pct": 0, "evidence": [], "note": "Zero mainnet PQC; AlphaNet is a dedicated testnet. Mainnet rollout not yet scheduled." }, "5b_pqc_code_in_client": { "score": 13, "note": "ML-DSA code merged into rippled AlphaNet branch — shipped, running, public." }, "5c_validator_pqc_adoption": { "score": 5, "note": "AlphaNet validator set runs PQ code; mainnet UNL validators do not yet." }, "5d_published_milestones_count": { "score": 12, "count": 5, "note": "Milestones: (1) AlphaNet launch Dec 2025, (2) IEEE paper published, (3) ML-DSA merged into rippled, (4) public testnet signing ceremony, (5) RippleX PQ roadmap post." }, "5e_pqc_washing_delta": { "score": 7, "ratio": 1, "note": "Claims-vs-ship ratio ~1: Ripple announced AlphaNet and delivered it. Low washing." } }, "total_artifacts": 5 }, "6_supply_chain_vendor_readiness": { "weight": 0.22, "score": 15, "sub_scores": { "6a_wallet": { "score": 3, "top3": [ "Xaman (ex-Xumm)", "GemWallet", "Ledger" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0, "evidence": [] }, "6b_bridge": { "score": 3, "top3": [ "XRPL-EVM sidechain", "Axelar", "Multichain (defunct)" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0, "evidence": [] }, "6c_custodian": { "score": 5, "top3": [ "Ripple Custody", "BitGo", "Coinbase Custody" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 1, "evidence": [ "Ripple Custody PQ roadmap announced alongside AlphaNet" ] }, "6d_rpc_hsm": { "score": 4, "top3": [ "Ripple-operated RPC", "Validator cluster", "Blockdaemon" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0, "evidence": [] } }, "total_artifacts": 1 }, "7_governance_coordination": { "weight": 0.08, "score": 65, "sub_scores": { "7a_validator_stake_distribution": { "score": 13, "note": "~35 Unique Node List validators; Ripple-curated dUNL." }, "7b_upgrade_cadence_under_pressure": { "score": 18, "note": "Amendment system = proven. Fast execution of AlphaNet PQ feature." }, "7c_named_coordination_lead": { "score": 18, "note": "Named: David Schwartz (CTO), RippleX, Ripple Labs, XRPL Foundation." }, "7d_adversarial_coordination_precedent": { "score": 16, "note": "SEC lawsuit (2020-2024) forced coordination without chain-level incident. Coordination intact under adversarial pressure." } }, "total_artifacts": 1 } }, "gates": { "hybrid_deployment": "CONDITIONAL (AlphaNet deployed PQ-only not hybrid; hybrid gate requires classical-AND-PQ. Flag for policy discussion.)", "evidence_reconstruction": "PASS", "primitive_naming": "PASS" }, "caps_applied": [ "mosca_cap_60 (5a mainnet=0 but testnet-deployed)", "aaronson_cap_preserved (PQ code merged and running)" ], "qri": { "raw": 52, "after_caps": 48, "ci_plus_minus": 6, "band": 4, "band_name": "Transitioning-Partial" }, "migration_stage": 2, "mosca_inequality": { "X_signature_shelf_life_years": "5-12", "Y_migration_time_years_range": "2-4 (amendment system + AlphaNet precedent)", "Z_10pct_year": 2036, "Z_50pct_year": 2041, "danger_zone_at_50pct": false }, "four_scenario_grid": { "quantum_never": { "value_preserved_pct": 100, "privacy_preserved_pct": 100 }, "arrives_suddenly_pre_migration": { "value_preserved_pct": 35, "privacy_preserved_pct": 20 }, "arrives_slowly_post_migration": { "value_preserved_pct": 85, "privacy_preserved_pct": 55 }, "arrives_slowly_mid_migration": { "value_preserved_pct": 60, "privacy_preserved_pct": 35 } }, "burn_vs_rescue_policy": "rescue-favored via RegularKey rotation + amendment path; not yet ratified; LayerQu note: AlphaNet is PQ-only rather than hybrid, creating a classical-sig retirement path rather than parallel-run path", "pqc_washing_ratio": 1, "vendor_tile_summary": { "wallet": { "top3": [ "Xaman", "GemWallet", "Ledger" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0 }, "bridge": { "top3": [ "XRPL-EVM sidechain", "Axelar", "Multichain (defunct)" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0 }, "custodian": { "top3": [ "Ripple Custody", "BitGo", "Coinbase Custody" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 1 }, "rpc_hsm": { "top3": [ "Ripple-operated RPC", "Validator cluster", "Blockdaemon" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0 } }, "narrative_summary": "XRPL is the most advanced L1 execution on PQ in the evaluated set. AlphaNet (Dec 2025) shipped full CRYSTALS-Dilithium (ML-DSA) signatures in a public testnet with IEEE-published paper. Amendment system makes mainnet rollout a governance vote rather than a fork. Caveat: AlphaNet is PQ-only, not hybrid — Ripple chose a retire-classical path over a parallel-run hybrid, which complicates the Hybrid Deployment Gate. Mainnet activation timeline not yet public.", "evaluator_notes": "Stage 2 (Preparing) migrating toward Stage 3. Top deployment execution in batch after Starknet's FRI. Hybrid gate CONDITIONAL because Ripple chose PQ-only. If mainnet rollout happens this cycle, moves to Stage 3.", "narrative_voiced": "XRPL is the only chain in this batch that shipped full ML-DSA signatures on a public testnet with an IEEE paper to match. The interesting question is no longer can they, it is whether they activate the amendment on mainnet before the market gives them credit for a testnet." }